How Far Can Crypto Prices Fall Before a Margin Call? The Numbers for Five Assets

Every crypto-backed loan has a number nobody prints on the front page: the percentage the collateral can fall before the lender asks for more. This article prints it. For five assets and five starting loan-to-value ratios, the tables below show the price fall that reaches the margin-call threshold and the fall that reaches liquidation, using Arvexo's published parameters. The formula is included so the figures can be checked or recalculated for any lender.

Parameters as published on the Arvexo calculator on 12 October 2026. They are a dated snapshot; the signed loan agreement governs an individual loan.

The formula

Loan-to-value (LTV) is the loan balance divided by the collateral value. With the balance and the quantity of collateral held constant, LTV rises only because the price falls. The price fall that takes a loan from its starting LTV to any threshold is:

Price fall = (1 − starting LTV ÷ threshold LTV) × 100%

Example: a Bitcoin loan opened at 50% LTV with a margin-call threshold of 80%: (1 − 50 ÷ 80) × 100% = 37.5%. If Bitcoin was $100,000 when the loan opened, the margin call arrives at $62,500.

The formula is the same for every lender and every asset. Only the thresholds change.

Arvexo's thresholds per asset

• Bitcoin (BTC): Maximum starting LTV 70%, Margin-call LTV 80%, Liquidation LTV 85%
• Ethereum (ETH): Maximum starting LTV 65%, Margin-call LTV 75%, Liquidation LTV 82%
• Solana (SOL): Maximum starting LTV 60%, Margin-call LTV 72%, Liquidation LTV 80%
• BNB: Maximum starting LTV 55%, Margin-call LTV 68%, Liquidation LTV 78%
• Hyperliquid (HYPE): Maximum starting LTV 55%, Margin-call LTV 68%, Liquidation LTV 78%

An earlier warning alert precedes the margin call; it is a notification, not a threshold that requires action. The notification guide lists the levels.

Table 1: price fall to the margin call

Percentage fall in the collateral price, from the price at drawdown, that takes LTV to the margin-call threshold. "n/a" means the starting LTV is above that asset's maximum and is not available.

• 30%: BTC (80%) 62.5%, ETH (75%) 60.0%, SOL (72%) 58.3%, BNB (68%) 55.9%, HYPE (68%) 55.9%
• 40%: BTC (80%) 50.0%, ETH (75%) 46.7%, SOL (72%) 44.4%, BNB (68%) 41.2%, HYPE (68%) 41.2%
• 50%: BTC (80%) 37.5%, ETH (75%) 33.3%, SOL (72%) 30.6%, BNB (68%) 26.5%, HYPE (68%) 26.5%
• 60%: BTC (80%) 25.0%, ETH (75%) 20.0%, SOL (72%) 16.7%, BNB (68%) n/a, HYPE (68%) n/a
• Maximum: BTC (80%) 12.5% (70%), ETH (75%) 13.3% (65%), SOL (72%) 16.7% (60%), BNB (68%) 19.1% (55%), HYPE (68%) 19.1% (55%)

Table 2: price fall to liquidation

Same method, liquidation threshold.

• 30%: BTC (85%) 64.7%, ETH (82%) 63.4%, SOL (80%) 62.5%, BNB (78%) 61.5%, HYPE (78%) 61.5%
• 40%: BTC (85%) 52.9%, ETH (82%) 51.2%, SOL (80%) 50.0%, BNB (78%) 48.7%, HYPE (78%) 48.7%
• 50%: BTC (85%) 41.2%, ETH (82%) 39.0%, SOL (80%) 37.5%, BNB (78%) 35.9%, HYPE (78%) 35.9%
• 60%: BTC (85%) 29.4%, ETH (82%) 26.8%, SOL (80%) 25.0%, BNB (78%) n/a, HYPE (78%) n/a
• Maximum: BTC (85%) 17.6% (70%), ETH (82%) 20.7% (65%), SOL (80%) 25.0% (60%), BNB (78%) 29.5% (55%), HYPE (78%) 29.5% (55%)

Rounded to one decimal place. The tables hold the balance, collateral quantity and thresholds constant and exclude interest added to the balance, fees, repayments, extra collateral and execution costs. A threshold is a trigger, not a guaranteed sale price.

Table 3: the same numbers as prices

For readers who think in prices rather than percentages. Hypothetical drawdown prices, chosen as round numbers, not market quotes.

• BTC at $100,000: Starting LTV 50%, Margin-call price $62,500, Liquidation price $58,824
• BTC at $100,000: Starting LTV 70%, Margin-call price $87,500, Liquidation price $82,353
• ETH at $4,000: Starting LTV 50%, Margin-call price $2,667, Liquidation price $2,439
• ETH at $4,000: Starting LTV 65%, Margin-call price $3,467, Liquidation price $3,171
• SOL at $200: Starting LTV 50%, Margin-call price $139, Liquidation price $125
• SOL at $200: Starting LTV 60%, Margin-call price $167, Liquidation price $150
• BNB at $800: Starting LTV 40%, Margin-call price $471, Liquidation price $410
• BNB at $800: Starting LTV 55%, Margin-call price $647, Liquidation price $564
• HYPE at $40: Starting LTV 40%, Margin-call price $23.53, Liquidation price $20.51
• HYPE at $40: Starting LTV 55%, Margin-call price $32.35, Liquidation price $28.21

Threshold price = drawdown price × starting LTV ÷ threshold LTV.

Three things the tables show

1. Halving the starting LTV roughly triples the buffer at the top of the range. A Bitcoin loan at the 70% maximum has 12.5% of room before a margin call; at 35% it has 56%. The relationship is not linear: each step down in starting LTV buys more room than the last.

2. The "safest" column is not the safest asset. BNB and HYPE show the widest percentage buffers at their maximum LTV (19.1%) because their ceilings are lowest. That is the lender pricing their volatility, not a statement that they fall less. A more volatile asset can cross a wider buffer faster than a calmer asset crosses a narrow one.

3. The gap between margin call and liquidation is small. For Bitcoin at maximum LTV it is about five percentage points of price (12.5% to 17.6%). That gap is the time you have to respond. In a fast market it can be hours.

A 2022 stress test

ESMA's October 2022 report records that Bitcoin and Ether fell by more than 30% within a week during the Terra collapse in May 2022. [1] Applying a 30% fall to the tables: every loan opened at maximum LTV, on every asset, is past liquidation. A Bitcoin loan opened at 50% LTV is past the margin call (37.5%) only if the fall exceeds 37.5%, so it survives the week with a margin call pending but no sale, provided no interest has been added to the balance. A loan opened at 40% survives with room to spare.

The same report is a reminder that the historical observation applies to two assets. Solana, BNB and HYPE have their own histories, and HYPE's is short.

What moves the numbers in practice

The tables are the clean case. Four things make real loans tighter.

• Interest added to the balance. If a monthly payment is missed, Arvexo adds the unpaid interest to the balance, which raises LTV without any price move. [2]
• Multiple collateral assets. A loan secured by more than one asset has a blended LTV; the fall needed depends on the mix.
• Price source and timing. LTV is computed from the lender's price feed, which may differ from the exchange you watch. The threshold is crossed when the feed says so.
• Confirmation lag. A top-up counts when it is confirmed, not when it is sent. Arvexo's margin-call guide says the LTV updates once the deposit or payment is confirmed. [3] Prices can keep moving in between.

How to use the tables

1. Find your asset and the starting LTV you are considering.
2. Read the margin-call and liquidation falls. Convert them to prices at today's price.
3. Ask whether you could fund a top-up or repayment at those prices. If the honest answer is no, move one row up the table and ask again.
4. Write the two prices down and keep them where you will see them. The repayment guide has a monthly routine built around them.

The LTV guide explains the arithmetic with three worked cases; Margin calls and liquidation covers what to do when a notice arrives. To see the figures for your own amount, use the calculator.

Reuse

The tables may be reproduced with attribution to Arvexo and a link to this page. They are generated from the formula above and the published thresholds; anyone can verify them.

Frequently asked questions

How far can Bitcoin fall before a margin call?

At Arvexo's maximum starting LTV of 70%, a 12.5% fall reaches the 80% margin-call threshold. At 50% starting LTV the fall is 37.5%; at 40% it is 50%. The figure is the same for any Bitcoin price, because it is a percentage of the price at drawdown.

What is the formula for a margin-call price?

Margin-call price = price at drawdown × starting LTV ÷ margin-call LTV. For Bitcoin at $100,000, opened at 50% LTV with an 80% threshold: $100,000 × 0.50 ÷ 0.80 = $62,500.

What is the difference between a margin call and liquidation?

A margin call is a request to restore the loan-to-value ratio within a stated window, by adding collateral or repaying principal. Liquidation is the sale of some or all of the collateral once LTV reaches the higher liquidation threshold. For Bitcoin the two thresholds are 80% and 85%.

Related reading

• What is loan-to-value (LTV) and why does it matter?
• Margin calls and liquidation: what every borrower should know
• How much can you borrow against 1 BTC, 10 ETH or 100 SOL?
• What is a margin call?
• How can I reduce the risk of liquidation?

Collateral can fall in value and be sold. This article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Sources

1. ESMA, Crypto-assets and financial stability, October 2022, p. 12. Verified in the 22 September review.
2. Arvexo, What happens if I miss a payment? (help centre).
3. Arvexo, What is a margin call? (help centre).